Best Bet: Oakland Athletics +140
On Wednesday Phil Hughes makes his road debut against the Oakland Athletics. In Hughes first start of 2010, he was able to shut down the Angels back in New York. He received a standing ovation from the fans as he exited, and he hopes to earn a permanent spot in the Yankees rotation. Unfortunately for Hughes, he is going to be facing a tough Athletics lineup that could be a fork in the road. On the outside, Oakland looks like the most mediocre team, but they know how to win. There is a difference between teams who “can” win and teams who “do” win. Oakland is one of those teams that does win, often times when you would least expect it.
Hughes opponent on the mound is Ben Sheets. The Athletics signed Sheets to a deal this year after he recovered from injuries over the past few years. He was once a major prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, ended up having a few good years, but ultimately struggled with injuries and inconsistency. In 2010, Sheets seems to be rejuvenating his career. He, like the A’s hitters, knows how to win. There is no doubt that he has the drive and determination to win, and he has the talent to be one of the best around. He can definitely hold the Yankees to minimal runs. The question, however, is if his teammates will be able to back him up with a solid offensive performance.
This is a late game on the West Coast, and Hughes’ first away from Yankee Stadium. Despite a stellar showing in his debut, there is still a legitimate chance that he gets blown up. He has never dazzled as a starter, and one week is not enough to erase a rough past. The best bet in this game is the Oakland Athletics at +140. Both pitchers are unknowns to one extent or another when it comes to their ability to perform on a consistent basis, but you are much safer with money on Sheets than Hughes.
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After a hot start, the Toronto Blue Jays have really cooled off. Most expected the Jays to have a rough season in 2010, but they have proved the doubters wrong by posting a 7-6 record a few weeks into the season. Adam Lind has been on fire after signing a major contract with the Jays. Unfortunately for Toronto, they had to face the White Sox and Angels in back to back series, and have since fallen back to earth. Nonetheless, Toronto has proved that they are for real and are coming to play each time they step on the field. On Monday they are going to start a new series with the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City, like Toronto, has exceeded expectations in the early 2010 season. After holding their own against Boston and Detroit, KC is hoping to put a beating on Toronto.
The pitchers in this game are off to two very different starts. For the Blue Jays, Brandon Morrow gets the ball. Morrow has had a very disappointing start, posting an ERA of 12 with no wins. Beyond this, Morrow’s career stats against Kansas City are less than impressive. Where most pitchers would thrive against a traditionally weak Royals team, Morrow has managed to struggle. Opposing Morrow is Brian Bannister. Bannister has been dominant in his initial starts, holding onto an ERA just over 2. A New York Mets castoff, Bannister has rejuvenated his career to a Cy Young-like level. No one expected this of Bannister, who has been an average pitcher in years past. These two starting pitchers contrast each other as much as possible in 2010, with one having experienced unparalleled success while the other is enduring a painful start.
As good as Brian Bannister has been, his bullpen is still a major cause for concern. Nothing would be worse than betting on the Royals, seeing Bannister put on a stellar performance, and then not getting the win anyway because his bullpen faltered. You can avoid this by betting on the 1st Five Innings at Sportsbook. With the money line for this game sitting at -120 for Blue Jays and even money for Royals, anything better than -120 on the 1st Five Innings for the Royals is a steal.
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The Marlins stroll into Philadelphia Friday after a big win on Thursday night. After stomping all over the Reds, Florida hopes their hot streak will continue. Unfortunately for the Marlins, Roy Halladay stands in their way. Halladay is off to a god-like start in 2010, and is looking to continue with another win on Friday. In his career, Halladay has not posted phenomenal numbers against The Fish, but it’s Roy Halladay. If anyone can turn that around, it’s him.
On the other side of the hill is Anibal Sanchez. Like Halladay, Sanchez struggles against the Phillies. You have to figure that Halladay is much more likely to put on a dazzling performance than Sanchez, even if neither pitcher has traditionally dominated the opponent. With the Phillies having a clear advantage on pitching, you must then consider who has the edge on offense. The answer is the Phillies, and it is not even close. The Phillies have managed to eclipse the over/under in almost every game, except when stars like Halladay or Happ start. Philadelphia has one of, if not the, most explosive offenses in baseball.
The Phillies should be ableto cover the money line with relative ease tonight. The straight up bet against the spread has way too much juice, so the money line is a great alternative. At around -130, there is no doubt that this is a bet that will be profitable. Even if the Phillies somehow struggle against Sanchez, which is doubtful, they are going to cover this bet far more often than not.
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Despite a misleading box score, the Angels dominated the Yankees during Wednesday’s day game. The final score was 5-3, but the Yankees got some breaks to earn those runs, and the Angels missed opportunities to add to their lead. The starters on Wednesday were much more predictable than they are on Thursday, with both pitchers making their first starts of 2010. Phil Hughes’ debut is much anticipated in New York, with the club hoping he will be able to stay in the rotation for the entirety of the season. Unfortunately, however, he has not proven to be a reliable starter in his brief stints with the team. His relief work has been great, but the role of a relief pitcher is very different from that of a starter.
The Angels are starting Scott Kazmir. Kazmir built a name for himself in Tampa Bay, though he was originally drafted by the New York Mets. Kazmir has managed to live up to hype all of his life, from being a top prospect, to the (then) Devil Rays ace, and then even a dominant starter on the Angels. In 2009, Kazmir got off to a rough start with the Rays, who then dealt him to Anaheim. Once he got to the Angels, however, he dominated, maintaining an ERA below 2 in six starts. There is no reason Kazmir can’t continue this success in 2010, assuming that he is able to stay healthy. Injury is the only obstacle in Kazmir’s way.
Thursday’s game against the Yankees is the perfect way for Kazmir to kick off his season. Who wants to face the Yankees in their first start after some rehab work in single A? Scott Kazmir does. He has traditionally dominated every Yankees slugger, with the exception of Mark Teixeira. Much to Kazmir’s delight, Teixeira has been struggling, so his only roadblock might end up being a non-factor. Phil Hughes is a wildcard Thursday, and with all history considered, Kazmir has the clear pitching advantage.
The bet in this game is the money line. There is a legitimate chance that the Angels will crush Hughes and will get a strong showing from Kazmir. The Yankees might bounce back after Wednesday’s loss and chalk up a ton of runs, but you have to take your chances and play the odds in this spot. The Angels are at +156 on the money line, so even a 40% win rate will be very profitable. This is a win rate that is easily attainable with Kazmir on the mound for the Angels and Hughes starting for the Yankees.
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The Yankees and Angels are set to start the second game of their series on Wednesday. Tuesday’s game came down to the wire, with New York holding on to a 7-5 win. The Yankees were the heavy favorite on Tuesday, as they are in virtually every game that they play. Wednesday is no different, with New York sitting at -195 on the money line. This is a huge number no matter who they are playing, but the Angels definitely have the power to escape with a win. The Angels are off to a very rough start in 2010, but they are missing Vladimir Guerrero. Regardless, LAA still has plenty of bats to go around.
New York is starting Javier Vasquez. Vasquez has seen better days, and it is doubtful that he will resurrect his career in 2010. Vasquez played well in 2009, but it could have been a late career fluke. He had a poor showing against the Tampa Bay Rays last week, which earned him a 12.71 ERA. The Angels are sending Joel Pineiro to the mound. Pineiro posted a 3.49 ERA in 2009 and is one of the premier pitchers on the Angels’ staff. If he is unable to shut down the Yankees, no one can. The Angels bats need to wake up early against Vasquez. Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu can pound Vasquez if they really want to.
Despite a weak starting pitcher, the Yankees are the favorite no matter who they play. Even when they faced David Price and the Rays, New York was still a favorite. New York, however, lost that game against the Rays. Today’s lines are treating New York like they are a lock to win. There is never a lock in baseball, this is one thing that bettors seem to be forgetting. You are going to get crushed in the end if you are betting on the Yankees money line today, there is no doubt about it. The Angels aren’t going to win this game most of the time, they might not even win 50% of the time, but their money line is at +180. This an enormous number. If the Angels can get a win here even 30% of the time, this bet will be profitable.
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